Starbucks Stock To $40?

Core Insights - Starbucks stock has decreased by approximately 15% over the last year, with historical data suggesting potential for further declines, as the company has previously suffered greater losses than the overall market during downturns [1][2][3] Revenue Growth - Starbucks achieved an average revenue growth of around 4.7% over the last three years, with a slight increase of 0.6% in the past year, raising sales from $36 billion to $37 billion [3] - Recent quarterly revenue rose 3.8% year-over-year, reaching $9.5 billion compared to $9.1 billion during the same period last year [3] - However, same-store sales experienced a global decline of 2% in the most recent quarter, with North America seeing a 3% drop in transaction volumes [4] Margin Compression - Operating income for the last year was $3.8 billion, resulting in a margin of 10.5%, while net income was approximately $2.6 billion, leading to a slim margin of 7.2% [5] - Operating margins in North America have fallen from above 20% to closer to 13%, influenced by rising labor costs, increased coffee bean prices, and the "Back to Starbucks" reinvestment strategy requiring over $3 billion in spending [7] Valuation Concerns - Starbucks stock is currently priced near $83, with projections indicating a potential drop to $40, representing a 50% decline if revenue growth stagnates and margins remain compressed [2][8] - EPS is projected to decline from $3.31 in FY 2024 to $2.20 in FY 2025, before partially recovering to $2.71 in FY 2026, indicating weaker profitability compared to previous years [8] - The stock trades at high multiples of 37x forward earnings for FY 2025 and 30x for FY 2026, significantly higher than peers like Coca-Cola and McDonald's [9] Long-term Outlook - Despite current challenges, Starbucks maintains long-term recovery potential due to its global scale, premium brand, and effective loyalty program, which provide pricing power and international growth opportunities [10]