ETO Markets 市场洞察：美联储“双面游戏”：一边降息一边警告通胀！黄金何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and signaled continued easing into 2025, but the dovish tone of Powell was less than expected, leading to a nearly 1% drop in gold prices [1] Economic Data and Policy Expectations - The latest dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end, but Powell remains cautious about the pace of cuts. The FOMC voting results show that most members supported a 25 basis point cut, with only one member advocating for a 50 basis point reduction [3] - The Fed acknowledged that recent inflation data has risen but remains at a "high level," while also recognizing signs of economic growth slowing in the first half of 2025 [3] Labor Market and Inflation Dynamics - Powell emphasized signs of weakness in labor demand and that inflation remains elevated. He noted a shift in the balance of policy risks and stated that the current policy framework can flexibly respond to economic changes [4] - He clarified that there was no broad support for a 50 basis point cut at this meeting and reiterated that the decision-making body is not in a hurry to accelerate easing [4] Technical Analysis and Support/Resistance - Gold prices fell sharply after reaching a historical high of $3,707.35, stabilizing around $3,660. The 14-day RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting limited short-term upside, but the overall trend remains bullish [5] - The upward targets are set at $3,750 and $3,800, with primary support at $3,650. A break below this level could test the September 11 low of $3,613, slightly above the psychological level of $3,600 [5] Market Perspective - The current market is characterized by a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" cycle typical of Federal Reserve dynamics. Despite short-term pressure on gold prices from a rebounding dollar, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to the Fed's focus on employment, a downward trend in real interest rates, geopolitical risks, and global central bank gold purchases [7] - The company maintains a bullish stance, advising investors to monitor the effectiveness of the $3,650 support level. If it holds, investors may consider accumulating long positions with targets above $3,750; if it breaks, caution is warranted regarding a potential pullback to $3,600 [7]