美联储降息影响几何？专家：对国内楼市、股市影响有限，人民币将被动升值

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since 2025 and signaling the start of a new monetary easing cycle globally [2][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Rate Cut - The rate cut is primarily due to the persistent weakness in the U.S. labor market since May, reflecting a "preventive rate cut" characteristic as the Fed seeks to balance deteriorating employment and inflation pressures [5][6]. - The August non-farm payroll data showed only 22,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a sharp decline in job growth [5][6]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a possibility of two more rate cuts before the end of the year, with the Fed's dot plot indicating potential cuts in October and December, each by 25 basis points [7][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding inflation trends may complicate the rate cut process in the following year [7]. Group 3: Impact on China - The Fed's rate cut expands the space for monetary policy adjustments in China, indirectly affecting the Chinese stock and real estate markets through domestic macro policy changes [5][12]. - The potential for a passive appreciation of the RMB is noted, as the Fed's actions may reduce the extent of the U.S.-China interest rate differential [12][17]. Group 4: Global Market Implications - The rate cut is expected to support U.S. equities by reducing corporate financing costs, although the immediate impact may be limited due to prior market expectations [11][12]. - The global bond market is likely to benefit from increased liquidity, although the domestic bond market in China may not see significant changes due to its focus on local economic factors [15][16]. Group 5: Gold Market Outlook - The Fed's rate cut is viewed positively for international gold prices, which have already risen approximately 40% this year, with expectations of continued upward pressure due to geopolitical risks and the future trajectory of the U.S. dollar [19][20]. Group 6: Monitoring Future Economic Indicators - Key indicators to watch include U.S. inflation trends and China's export performance, which may influence future policy decisions and potential new stimulus measures [20].