KVB plus：黄金从高点进一步回落，美元走强抵消美联储鸽派信号

Core Viewpoint - Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure, retreating below the historical high of $3700, influenced by a rebound in the US dollar following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates and comments from Chairman Powell indicating no immediate need for rapid rate cuts [1][2]. Market Drivers - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with indications of two more rate cuts within the year due to a slowing job market [2]. - Despite an initial surge in gold prices, the rebound in US Treasury yields and the dollar led to a sharp decline in gold prices, as Powell highlighted upward inflation risks and a gradual approach to future rate policy [2]. Geopolitical Risks - The intensification of geopolitical tensions, including Russia's military actions and Israel's increased military operations in Gaza, may provide some support for gold prices, limiting potential declines [3]. Technical Analysis - Key support for gold is identified at $3645, previously a resistance level, while $3700 remains a strong resistance point [4][6]. - If gold prices fall below $3645, further declines to the $3610-$3600 range may occur, while a breakthrough above $3678-$3680 could lead to a challenge of the historical high [6]. Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections indicate a growth forecast of 1.6% for the US economy this year, with core PCE inflation expected at 3.1% [2].