每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-09-18）

Group 1 - Fitch indicates that the Federal Reserve is fully supporting the labor market and will tolerate higher inflation in the short term, with a decisive rate cut cycle expected in 2025 [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating on A-shares and H-shares, suggesting that the "slow bull" market for A-shares appears more stable than before, with a focus on themes like private enterprises and artificial intelligence [1] - KPMG warns that extending current Federal Reserve policies into next year could lead to excessive stimulus, potentially creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of higher inflation expectations among consumers and businesses [1] Group 2 - BlackRock states that the prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts may depend on the continued weakness of the labor market, with future policy actions likely to be data-dependent [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the Federal Reserve is not in a rate-cutting sprint mode, but has restarted the rate-cutting process due to weaker-than-expected labor market conditions [2] - Nomura has adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve, predicting a 25 basis point cut in October and subsequent cuts at each remaining meeting this year [3] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank raises its gold price forecast for next year to $4,000 per ounce, citing favorable foreign exchange and interest rate environments [4] - ING reports that the latest UK inflation data does not significantly alter the probability of further rate cuts by the Bank of England later this year [5][6] - Rabobank anticipates that European natural gas prices will stabilize at high levels starting in the second quarter of next year due to new liquefied natural gas capacity coming online [6] Group 4 - Bank of America survey reveals that 59% of European investors view the weakness of the US labor market as the biggest risk to global economic growth [7] - CICC reports that the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates two more rate cuts this year, but there is significant divergence among committee members regarding the timing and extent of these cuts [8] - CICC also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates again in October, but warns that the threshold for future cuts will become increasingly high due to rising inflation [9] Group 5 - Huatai Securities raises its forecast for the number of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year from two to three, anticipating cuts in October and December [10] - CITIC Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve may cumulatively cut rates by 50 basis points this year, with the policy rate expected to be between 3.5% and 3.75% by year-end [11] - CITIC Securities also suggests that the dollar may remain weak during this rate-cutting cycle, while gold is expected to perform well [12] Group 6 - Zheshang Securities highlights that the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is a beginning rather than an end, with potential risks of inflation if cuts are too aggressive [14] - CICC notes that only a few companies possess the full-stack capabilities necessary to advance to the "embodied intelligence" level in robotics [15] - Galaxy Securities anticipates a seasonal increase in cement prices as demand is expected to recover from September to November [16]