DLS MARKETS：日元持续看跌，期待日本央行政策更新带来新的动力

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen continues to decline against the US dollar following the FOMC meeting, with the divergence in policy outlooks between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) likely to limit further depreciation of the low-yielding yen [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Economic Data - The yen fell for the second consecutive day, reaching its lowest level since July 7, as the dollar strengthened broadly [2]. - Japan's core machinery orders for July decreased by 4.6% month-on-month, with private sector order growth slowing from 7.6% in June to 4.9% year-on-year, which was below market expectations and exerted pressure on the yen [3]. - The Fed lowered borrowing costs for the first time since December 2024, reducing the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with expectations for further cuts by the end of the year [3]. Group 2: Policy Outlook and Market Sentiment - There is a growing consensus that the BoJ will maintain its policy normalization path, contrasting with the Fed's dovish stance, which should limit the yen's depreciation [2][3]. - The tight labor market and optimistic economic outlook in Japan open the door for potential interest rate hikes by the BoJ, while geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts may deter aggressive bearish bets on the yen [4]. - The market is focused on the upcoming two-day BoJ meeting, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged, and investors are looking for clues regarding future policy direction [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY needs to break through the 147.40-147.50 range to support further upward movement [6]. - After breaking below the 146.30-146.20 support level, the market reversed post-FOMC meeting, breaking above the 147.00 level, although daily oscillators have not confirmed a bullish outlook [7]. - Significant downward movements may find support around the 146.20 area, with a break below exposing the overnight low near 145.50-145.45, potentially accelerating declines towards the psychological level of 145.00 [7].