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乘联分会：初步推算9月新能源车零售可达125万辆左右 渗透率58.1%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-18 11:32

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is expected to experience stable growth in September, with a slight year-on-year increase in sales, despite uncertainties due to adjustments in trade-in subsidy policies [1][3][6] Group 1: September Market Outlook - The narrow passenger vehicle retail market is projected to reach approximately 2.15 million units in September, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 6.5% and a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [1][3] - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales are anticipated to be around 1.25 million units, with a penetration rate of 58.1%, marking a new historical high [1][3] Group 2: August Market Review - In August, the narrow passenger vehicle retail reached 2.018 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a month-on-month increase of 9.5% [2] - NEV sales in August totaled 1.115 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% and a month-on-month growth of 13.0%, resulting in a penetration rate of 55.2% [2] Group 3: Weekly Sales Trends - In the first week of September, daily retail averaged 43,500 units, down 10.3% year-on-year and 3.8% month-on-month [4][5] - The second week saw an increase to 59,500 units daily, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2% but a month-on-month increase of 11.9% [4][5] - By the third week, daily retail is expected to reach 68,100 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.8% and a month-on-month increase of 14.3% [4][5] - The fourth week is projected to average 105,900 units daily, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month increase of 19.0% [4][5] Group 4: Market Stability and Consumer Behavior - The market is showing signs of stability with consistent end-user discounts and a more regulated pricing system, indicating a reduction in competitive pressure [6] - The retail sales of automotive consumer goods increased by 0.8% year-on-year in August, reversing a previous decline, suggesting a recovery in the automotive consumption market [6] - The introduction of new models and the ongoing support from trade-in policies are expected to enhance market performance, particularly in the NEV segment [6]