美国降息后美元存款还有吸引力吗？利率依然很高，但不亏钱就不错了

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%, with potential further cuts expected by the end of the year, leading to discussions on cross-border asset allocation, particularly the comparison of returns between RMB and USD deposits [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Dynamics - The U.S. has been in a rate hike cycle while China has been lowering rates, resulting in an expanding interest rate differential between the two countries [3]. - Current annualized interest rates for one-year USD deposits have exceeded 5%, significantly higher than those for RMB deposits, prompting investors to convert RMB to USD for savings [3]. - The Fed's rate adjustments influence interbank lending costs, which will gradually affect deposit rates, but there is a lag of a few days before these changes are reflected in deposit rates [3]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Risks - Comparing interest rates alone is insufficient; exchange rate fluctuations significantly impact actual returns for domestic investors who ultimately convert earnings back to RMB [5]. - Historical data shows that if the USD depreciates, the interest income may be offset or even negated by currency losses, as seen in the potential scenario where the offshore RMB rate depreciates from 7.1 to 6.3 [5]. - Since April, the USD has depreciated from 7.43 to 7.1, with a cumulative depreciation of 4.4%, indicating increased currency risk for investors [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors holding maturing USD deposits should consider converting back to RMB after maturity to avoid early withdrawal penalties [7]. - New investors should carefully assess risks before converting to USD solely based on interest rate differentials, as the potential for USD depreciation could lead to losses [7]. - A dynamic evaluation framework is essential, focusing on interest rate differentials, exchange rate trends, inflation expectations, and diverging monetary policies [7]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Considerations - Existing funds can be held until maturity, while new investments must balance interest income against currency risk to avoid potential losses [9]. - For domestic investors whose primary consumption currency is RMB, excessive holding of USD assets may lead to a situation of "earning interest but losing capital" [9]. - A rational assessment of currency risk is crucial, especially during sensitive periods of monetary policy shifts, to align return expectations with risk tolerance [9].