Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-18 11:44Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, and indicated two more cuts may occur this year, with one expected next year instead of the previously anticipated two to three [2] - Following the Fed's announcement, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Monetary Authority of Macao also reduced their base rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index initially fell but then rebounded significantly after the Fed's decision, moving from 96.3 to 97.18, while the euro exchange rate strengthened from 1.191 to 1.179 [3] - U.S. Treasury yields for the 10-year note dropped by 5 basis points to around 4.00% before recovering to approximately 4.05% [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The decline in short-term rates alongside a slight increase in long-term rates suggests a steepening yield curve, reflecting market concerns about "stagnant economic growth but rising prices," which aligns with the Fed's current worries regarding employment data and inflation [7] - Despite the Fed's rate cut, the strengthening dollar has led to a decrease in gold prices, which had previously reached new highs, indicating a potential profit-taking phase among traders [8] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.57%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.33% and 0.10%, respectively [10] - Notable performances included Goldman Sachs, which rose by 1.11%, and Caterpillar, which increased by 2.27%, benefiting from the lower interest rates [10] Group 5: Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks, represented by the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, rose by 2.85%, with Alibaba and Baidu continuing their upward momentum, gaining 2.44% and 11.34%, respectively [12] - However, there are concerns about potential profit-taking as the market shifts focus from "expectations" to "realities," with significant recent gains in stocks like Baidu and Alibaba prompting caution [12][13] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is entering a "verification period" where the focus will shift to whether companies can deliver solid earnings to support their stock prices, especially in light of the recent strong performance of Chinese tech stocks [13] - The Fed's rate cut has led to a complex scenario where the market must navigate between economic slowdown and inflation, indicating that future volatility will be driven more by economic data and corporate earnings rather than policy speculation [14][15]