风险管理式降息，宽松预期未必一帆风顺

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year, as reflected in the dot plot [2][6] - Powell described the recent rate cut as a "risk management" decision, suggesting a cautious approach to future monetary policy [4][6] - The Fed's focus on employment risks has increased, indicating a potential shift in the labor market dynamics, with a "weak supply and demand" scenario [3][6] Group 2 - The economic forecast for GDP growth has been slightly revised upward to 1.6% for the year, primarily driven by investment [6][7] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.5% by year-end, despite concerns about labor market weaknesses [6][8] - Inflation expectations remain unchanged, with the PCE forecast at 3.0% for the year, indicating a stable inflation outlook [6][8] Group 3 - The Fed's balance sheet reduction remains unchanged, with a current pace of $50 billion for Treasury securities and $35 billion for MBS [3][9] - There is a potential for the Fed to halt balance sheet reduction by Q4, as bank reserves approach a critical threshold [9][10] - Current liquidity conditions in the dollar system are tightening, which may prompt the Fed to reconsider its balance sheet strategy [10] Group 4 - The U.S. economy is transitioning from a consumption-driven model to one driven by investment, which may lead to structural changes in employment data [7][8] - The impact of immigration policies on labor supply could keep unemployment rates stable despite a declining non-farm employment trend [8] - The dollar index is expected to strengthen, while the RMB may appreciate against the dollar, reflecting a dual bullish trend for both currencies [11]