美联储降息利好兑现 理财留意短期调整压力

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, which is expected to trigger a new round of adjustments in global asset classes [1] Group 1: Impact on Assets - The Fed's rate cut is likely to lead to capital flow changes, currency fluctuations, and asset repricing, with the dollar index down 10.56% year-to-date and COMEX gold up 39.98% [1] - Following the rate cut, gold prices experienced a slight decline, indicating a potential profit-taking phase after the initial positive reaction [1] - Historical data suggests that gold prices typically see small gains or remain stable in the week following a Fed rate cut, with significant positive returns observed one and three months later [3] Group 2: Currency and Interest Rates - The depreciation of the dollar has led to the appreciation of non-dollar currencies, with the Chinese yuan rising from 7.3506 to approximately 7.1 against the dollar since April [3] - The potential for further depreciation of deposit rates exists, as the domestic monetary policy may follow the Fed's lead, which could result in lower bond yields and benefit fixed-income products [6] - If the yuan continues to appreciate, the foreign exchange risk for currency-based investments may increase, although the short-term appreciation potential appears limited [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The Fed's rate cut opens up further "easing" space for domestic monetary policy, which could lead to continued downward pressure on deposit rates and support for bond markets [6] - Global risk assets may benefit from a valuation recovery window, with more funds potentially flowing into emerging markets as the Fed's actions lower global risk-free rates [7] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets may see increased interest if the Fed continues to cut rates and the yuan appreciates, benefiting equity-related products [7]