绿色金融日报9.18

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% amid signs of economic slowdown and a weakening labor market [1][2][5] - Inflation remains above the target of 2%, with the August CPI rising by 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI increasing by 3.1% [2] - The labor market shows significant weakness, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs added over the past 12 months and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [2][5] Group 2 - The Taylor rule, which has guided monetary policy since the 1990s, is losing its effectiveness, as recent economic conditions have led to deviations from its recommendations [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's credibility is crucial for its ability to deviate from the Taylor rule, allowing for more flexible monetary policy in response to supply shocks and inflation [4][5] - Future monetary policy is expected to focus more on the labor market, with potential for accelerated rate cuts due to ongoing fiscal pressures and government interventions [5] Group 3 - The structural rise in neutral interest rates may limit the scope for aggressive monetary easing, as excessive loosening could undermine the Fed's credibility and reignite inflation [5] - A stable inflation target of 3%-4% could lead to gradual improvements in the labor market, supporting a continued path of interest rate cuts [5] - The anticipated easing of monetary policy may accelerate the repricing of global assets, benefiting physical assets and precious metals, while potentially leading to capital flows favoring emerging markets [5]