Founder Securities(SH:601901) Feng Huang Wang·2025-09-18 12:52Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" among residents in China continues, with a notable decrease in household deposits and an increase in non-bank deposits, indicating a shift in asset allocation towards capital markets [1][2][6]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In August, household deposits increased by 110 billion yuan, significantly lower than the 710 billion yuan increase in the same month last year [1]. - Non-bank deposits rose by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, surpassing the 630 billion yuan increase from the previous year, marking a new high for the same period since data collection began [1][2]. - The continuous decline in household deposits over the past two months reflects a shift in asset allocation, with a close relationship to capital market performance [1][6]. Group 2: Drivers of Deposit Migration - The sustained decline in deposit interest rates and the attractive returns from the capital markets are identified as primary drivers of the current deposit migration [2][6]. - The A-share market has shown significant profitability this year, further enhancing its appeal to depositors seeking higher returns [2][6]. Group 3: Asset Reallocation - The current trend of deposit migration is primarily towards asset reallocation, with a significant portion of funds likely flowing into the stock market [6][7]. - In August, over 2.65 million new A-share accounts were opened, representing a 48% increase compared to the same period last year, indicating strong investor interest [6][7]. - The margin trading balance in the A-share market reached a historical high of 2.3256 trillion yuan as of September 10, reflecting an increasing risk appetite among investors [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The deposit migration phenomenon is still in its early stages, with household deposit growth rates declining for two consecutive months [8]. - The ratio of household deposits to the total market capitalization of stocks continues to decrease but remains at historically high levels, suggesting that the impact of deposit migration on equity markets is just beginning [8]. - The low interest rate environment and various positive factors are expected to sustain the trend of deposit migration in the near future [8].