美联储的“十字路口”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's "third mission" of pursuing moderate long-term interest rates has gained attention, especially in light of political pressures and the recent interest rate decision [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - On September 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1]. - New board member Stephen Milan opposed the 25 basis point cut, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction, highlighting political influence on monetary policy [2][3]. - The overwhelming 11 to 1 vote in favor of the rate cut indicates a strong internal consensus within the Federal Reserve despite external pressures [2]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6%, while maintaining its predictions for unemployment and inflation for 2024 [5]. - For 2026, the Fed projects a combination of higher growth, lower unemployment, and higher inflation, with the terminal rate lowered to 3.4% from 3.6% [5]. Group 3: Market Implications - The current economic environment suggests that a moderate reduction in the federal funds rate could stabilize inflation around 3% to 4%, potentially improving the labor market [6]. - The anticipated continuation of rate cuts may accelerate the repricing of global assets, benefiting physical assets and precious metals [6]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts reflects a balance between addressing labor market signals and managing inflation risks [9].