美联储降息周期大复盘：究竟是牛市的加速器，还是熊市的开端？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with two more rate cuts anticipated this year, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, and an additional 25 basis points in the following two years according to the latest dot plot [1] - Historically, significant bear markets in the U.S. stock market have occurred during Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycles, raising questions about whether the current rate cut is a bullish signal or a precursor to a bear market [1][24] - A review of past rate-cutting cycles from the 1990s to the present reveals varied impacts on the stock market, with some periods leading to significant gains while others resulted in substantial declines [1][23] Group 2 - The first rate-cutting cycle from July 1990 to October 1992 was initiated during a recession, with the federal funds rate dropping from 8% to 3%, leading to a recovery in GDP growth by 1992 [2][4] - The 1995-1996 rate-cutting cycle followed aggressive rate hikes in 1994, with the Fed reducing rates from 6% to 5.25% over three cuts, resulting in a 30% increase in stock indices during the subsequent months [7][9] - The 1998-1999 cycle saw a reduction from 5.5% to 4.75% amid global financial crises, with the U.S. economy remaining strong, leading to new stock market highs [12][14] Group 3 - The 2001-2003 rate-cutting cycle began in response to a recession, with rates falling from 6.5% to 1%, coinciding with a prolonged bear market where the Nasdaq experienced a maximum decline of 70% [16][19] - The 2007-2008 cycle was marked by the global financial crisis, with rates cut from 5.25% to near zero, resulting in significant stock market declines exceeding 50% [20][22] - The 2019-2020 cycle began with a series of preventive rate cuts, leading to a strong stock market performance until the COVID-19 pandemic prompted aggressive rate cuts back to near zero [22][23] Group 4 - The analysis indicates that preventive rate cuts typically do not lead to significant stock market issues, while crisis-driven cuts often result in initial market declines [23][24] - Current observations suggest that the recent rate cut is viewed as a preventive measure rather than a response to a crisis, with a generally optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy [24]