大宗商品资金流入激增，通胀“交易员”拉响警报：全球通胀或将在6-9个月内重新抬头

Core Insights - The article highlights a contrasting narrative between mainstream market optimism regarding inflation and the warnings from commodity traders about potential inflationary pressures ahead [1][2][3] Commodity Market Insights - Commodity markets are seen as a closer indicator of inflation, with rising raw material prices typically signaling broader price increases [2] - Historical data suggests that metal prices lead global Consumer Price Index (CPI) by approximately 6-9 months, indicating that current increases in metal prices may foreshadow rising inflation [2][3] Inflation Leading Indicators - Multiple inflation leading indicators are showing strong signals of impending price pressure, with a composite indicator based on manufacturing, monetary, and commodity data remaining above 2% and accelerating [3] - Rising freight and fertilizer prices are also noted as indicators that precede increases in food CPI [3] Market Sentiment - There is a notable overconfidence in the stock and bond markets, with significant inflows into major U.S. stock and bond ETFs, showing no signs of decline [4] - Current inflows into stocks and bonds do not reflect expectations of a scenario similar to the inflationary period of the 1970s, where commodities provided significant positive real returns [5]