咖啡价格剧烈波动，波动率攀升至四年高点

Core Insights - Coffee prices have experienced significant volatility this week due to concerns over tightening supply from Brazil, tariff policies, and profit-taking behavior, with New York coffee futures volatility reaching a four-year high [1] - Arabica coffee, the preferred variety for chains like Starbucks, saw prices approach historical highs due to drought conditions in Brazil and U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee, potentially increasing costs for roasters and consumers [1] - Following a peak, algorithmic traders began to take profits, and with exchanges raising maintenance costs, coffee prices subsequently fell, with Arabica coffee experiencing its largest single-day drop since 2008 at 9.1% [1] Price Movements - The 60-day historical volatility indicator for coffee prices has risen to its highest level since October 2021 due to the recent trading fluctuations [1] - On Thursday, coffee prices briefly increased by 1.5%, reaching $3.8135 per pound, before the gains narrowed [1] Market Analysis - Gnanasekar Thiagarajan from Commtrendz Research noted that coffee prices were pressured downwards by profit-taking, while expectations of rain in Brazil's main coffee-growing regions provided some support [2] - Thiagarajan indicated that after the price peak, a technical correction could see prices dip to the $3.45 to $3.25 per pound range, although some bottom-fishing buying has emerged [2] - Harry Howard from Sucden Financial Ltd. suggested that coffee prices may continue to fluctuate, with support around $3.50 per pound and resistance near $4.00 per pound [2] Weather Impact - Traders are closely monitoring weather conditions affecting Brazilian coffee crops, with forecasts predicting intermittent rain in key coffee-producing states, although some areas may remain dry [2]