王天丰：“股债跷跷板”或将脱敏，债市后续怎么看？

Group 1 - The bond market has shown a weak and fluctuating trend since Q3 2025, with the ten-year government bond yield rising from approximately 1.63% to 1.78%, an increase of about 15 basis points [1][3][8] - The yield curve has exhibited a rare "bear steepening" characteristic, indicating changes in growth and inflation expectations influenced by commodity and stock market movements [7][8] - Credit bonds have performed relatively well, with the funding environment remaining loose since mid-year, and market leverage returning to historical average levels [1][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's policies are a key variable affecting the bond market, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in the second half of the year due to a weakening U.S. economy and a deteriorating labor market [1][9][14] - Domestic economic indicators, such as retail sales and fixed asset investment, have shown marginal weakness, with expectations that overall economic growth may fall below annual targets [1][20][24] - The "anti-involution" policy is being advanced towards legalization and marketization, which may have long-term implications for inflation and economic stability [1][28][29] Group 3 - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a valuable investment tool due to its low fees, transparency, and stable historical returns, making it a preferred choice for bond market allocation [2][35][39] - The ETF has consistently achieved positive returns from 2018 to 2024, making it suitable for long-term investment strategies [2][35] - The bond market's current yield levels are considered neutral to low, with limited downward space due to the central bank's stance, necessitating attention to the policy combination of "central bank easing + government bond issuance" [33][34]