到2030年，持有现金和持有房产的人，终将会有两种截然不同的结局

Core Viewpoint - The discussion revolves around the contrasting outcomes for individuals holding cash versus real estate by 2030, with a growing preference for real estate despite concerns about a potential bubble [1][4]. Group 1: Historical Performance of Real Estate - Over the past 20 years, real estate has significantly outperformed cash holdings, with average property prices in China rising from 2,000 yuan per square meter in 1998 to 11,000 yuan per square meter in 2021, a 5.5-fold increase [3]. - In major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, property prices surged from 3,000 yuan per square meter to over 60,000 yuan per square meter, representing an increase of over 20 times [3]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Since 2022, there has been a notable decline in property prices across various cities, with the national average price dropping by over 30% [5]. - The economic growth rate in China has slowed from over 10% to around 5%, suggesting that cash may retain its purchasing power better than in the past, with potential for deflation [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the next five years, holding cash is expected to be safer than holding real estate, as cash wealth is less likely to experience significant depreciation [9]. - The disparity between property prices and local income levels indicates that real estate may not remain a viable investment long-term, as prices must eventually align with residents' purchasing power [7]. - The liquidity of real estate is decreasing due to a surge in second-hand listings and shrinking demand, making it difficult for property owners to liquidate assets quickly when needed [9][10].