Tesla Stock Surged 1,350% After Musk's Last Pay Plan—New Package Could Ignite Gains, Analyst Says

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has seen significant gains following the announcement of a new incentive plan for CEO Elon Musk, which is expected to boost investor sentiment and performance [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tesla's stock increased by 1,350% from January 2018 to September 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 130% return during the same period [2]. - Year-to-date, Tesla shares are up 13.3% in 2025, with a month-to-date increase of 27.5%, compared to a 2.7% gain for the S&P 500 [1][8]. Group 2: Delivery Estimates - Analyst Mark Delaney has raised Tesla's delivery estimates for the third and fourth quarters of 2025, expecting 455,000 units in Q3 (up from 430,000) and 450,000 units in Q4 (up from 443,000) [3][4]. - The new estimates exceed consensus expectations of 439,000 and 441,000 for Q3 and Q4, respectively [4]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - Consumer survey data indicates an improvement in net purchase intent and buzz around Tesla, suggesting potential year-over-year sales growth in the U.S. for Q3 [4][5]. - The anticipated increase in sales is attributed to the recent launch of the Model Y L and the impending expiration of IRA EV purchase credits [5]. Group 4: Future Earnings Potential - While maintaining a Neutral rating, Delaney acknowledges the potential for future earnings per share (EPS) growth driven by advancements in autonomy and robotics [6][7]. - The estimated EPS for Tesla in 2030 could range from $2 to $20, depending on various outcomes in these sectors [7]. Group 5: Price Target Adjustment - Delaney has raised the price target for Tesla from $300 to $395, reflecting the positive sentiment and performance expectations [2].