中国大胜？美债35年最大危机，人民币大涨4000点，CIPS结算再破纪录

Core Insights - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is rapidly advancing, challenging the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system [1][3][4] Group 1: RMB Internationalization Progress - In the first half of 2025, the China International Payment System (CIPS) processed an amount of 90.91 trillion RMB, nearing the total for 2024, indicating a significant growth trend [3] - The RMB's share in global payments rose to 5.8% in 2024, while the US dollar's share fell to 58.4%, the lowest in 25 years [4] - By 2024, CIPS expanded its reach to 185 countries, processing cross-border RMB payments amounting to 175 trillion RMB, a 43% increase year-on-year [6] Group 2: Currency Performance and Market Confidence - The RMB exchange rate strengthened significantly, rising from 7.428 to around 7.1 by the end of 2025, an increase of over 4000 basis points [5] - Foreign investors showed increased confidence in the Chinese market, with foreign holdings of Chinese bonds reaching approximately 4.6 trillion RMB by August 2024, a 0.3 percentage point increase from the end of 2023 [7] Group 3: Global De-dollarization Trends - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating globally, with the US dollar's share in foreign exchange reserves dropping from 66% in 2015 to below 58% by the third quarter of 2024 [8] - China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with over 40 countries, enhancing the global RMB clearing network [8] Group 4: RMB in Trade and Investment - The RMB's role in international trade is growing, with cross-border RMB settlement for major commodities reaching 1.5 trillion RMB in the first eight months of 2024, a 22.7% increase [6] - The issuance of RMB-denominated bonds by foreign entities, such as Saudi Arabia and Brazil, indicates a shift towards RMB in international financing [9] Group 5: Policy Support and Market Development - The Chinese government is actively promoting RMB internationalization through policies aimed at facilitating trade and investment, as well as enhancing the offshore RMB market [20][21] - The People's Bank of China is deepening financial cooperation with foreign central banks, which is crucial for the RMB's internationalization [21] Group 6: Structural Changes in Global Finance - The global financial landscape is undergoing significant changes, with emerging markets increasingly issuing local currency bonds and diversifying away from the US dollar [22] - The stability of the RMB against commodities like gold and oil is enhancing its attractiveness for global trade [23]