美联储降息靴子落地金价上涨行情还能走多远

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to a short-term spike in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $3744 per ounce before a quick decline [1] - As of September 18, COMEX gold futures were fluctuating around $3670 per ounce, reflecting market adjustments to the rate cut [1] - Since August, gold prices have increased nearly 10%, with a year-to-date rise of almost 40%, driven by concerns over the U.S. economy and inflation [1] Group 2 - Historical trends suggest that gold prices typically experience small gains or remain stable in the week following a Fed rate cut, with higher average returns observed one to three months later [2] - The market is currently cautious, with indicators showing that speculative net long positions in COMEX gold have decreased, indicating a cooling sentiment among institutional investors [2] - There is a notable divergence in ETF flows, with U.S. gold ETFs seeing net inflows while Chinese gold ETFs have recorded net outflows, marking China as the only significant region reducing gold holdings [2] Group 3 - Despite short-term risks, institutions maintain a positive long-term outlook for gold, with Deutsche Bank raising its 2026 gold price forecast from $3700 to $4000 per ounce [3] - The demand from central banks, particularly from China, is expected to support gold prices, with projections of 900 tons of gold purchases next year [3] - Long-term factors such as the U.S. fiscal deficit and ongoing central bank purchases are seen as key drivers for gold price support [3]