华创证券：白酒国际化尚处“从0到1”初步拓展期 出口仍具备可挖掘空间

Core Insights - The internationalization of Chinese liquor, particularly Baijiu, faces challenges but has potential for growth beyond market expectations due to quality, cultural significance, and a large overseas Chinese population [1][2][3] Group 1: Current State of Baijiu Exports - Baijiu has been exported for over 40 years, but actual international presence remains limited, with an export scale of approximately 6.9 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The export volume has stabilized around 15,000 tons, benefiting from increased prices per ton [1] - Major players like Moutai dominate the market, accounting for about 75% of exports, while East Asia represents over 40% of demand [1] Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - The internationalization of liquor faces challenges such as differing standards, cultural barriers, and insufficient consumer education [2] - There is a significant opportunity in the overseas Chinese community, which numbers around 60 million and has a higher consumption price point compared to domestic markets [2] - Major liquor companies are increasingly prioritizing international strategies, with Moutai integrating internationalization into its top-level design [2] Group 3: Strategic Directions for Growth - Liquor companies need to address core consumer decision-making processes and enhance the entire purchasing experience [3] - Regions like Japan and South Korea present unique challenges and opportunities, with Japan having strong local competition and South Korea lacking high-end market options [3] - Southeast Asia offers potential due to a large Chinese population, while mature markets like Europe and Australia may require targeted strategies for niche opportunities [3] Group 4: Future Pathways - The current phase of Baijiu internationalization is in its early stages, with potential for growth through channel development and brand promotion [4] - There is room for improvement in the current export scale of 6.9 billion yuan, particularly by targeting countries with close ties to China [4] - Long-term growth will require sustained efforts over a decade or more to cultivate a favorable consumption atmosphere [4]