今明两年不买房，5年以后是随便挑还是更买不起？孙宏斌2句话讲透

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the real estate market in China, highlighting the contrasting opinions on whether to buy property now or wait for potential price drops. It emphasizes the complexity of the housing market, influenced by supply-demand dynamics, financial policies, and demographic changes [1][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market is characterized by significant disparities across different city tiers. As of May 2025, the inventory of new residential properties in 300 key cities reached approximately 420 million square meters, with a de-stocking cycle of about 20 months. First-tier cities have a healthier de-stocking cycle of 10 months, while third and fourth-tier cities exceed 25 months [4]. - In first-tier and some strong second-tier cities, the market is approaching a balance, with some areas experiencing a shortage of available properties. This contrasts sharply with third-tier cities, where new developments remain unsold for extended periods [4]. Group 2: Financial Environment - Since the second half of 2024, the government has implemented various financial policies to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios and mortgage rates. As of July 2025, the average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers has dropped to around 3.8%, the lowest in nearly a decade [5]. - While these policies benefit homebuyers, their sustainability is uncertain, and the growth rate of personal housing loans has shown signs of recovery, indicating potential adjustments in future policies [5]. Group 3: Demographic Trends - China's population has experienced a decline for the first time since 1961, with an estimated decrease of about 800,000 in 2025. The aging population is also a significant factor, with projections indicating that 21% of the population will be 60 years or older by 2025 [6]. - Despite the overall population decline, urbanization continues, with younger populations migrating to first and second-tier cities, maintaining strong housing demand in these areas. The trend of smaller household sizes is also expected to mitigate some negative impacts of population decline on housing demand [6]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The ability to choose properties freely in five years will largely depend on the type of property and the city chosen. High-quality properties in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, especially those in desirable locations, are likely to maintain or even increase in value due to tightening supply [8]. - Conversely, properties in third and fourth-tier cities may face downward price pressure due to ongoing population outflows and excess inventory. The quality of properties will also play a crucial role in their future value, with energy-efficient and well-managed properties being more desirable [8]. Group 5: Decision-Making Strategies - Homebuyers are advised to focus on the fundamental purpose of housing, which is to provide shelter. Those with stable jobs and long-term plans in a city should consider purchasing if their rent approaches or exceeds potential mortgage payments [9]. - Financial prudence is essential, with recommendations to keep the mortgage-to-income ratio below 30% to avoid financial strain. Buyers should also tailor their purchasing strategies based on local market conditions, opting for smaller properties in high-demand areas initially, with plans to upgrade later [10]. - Attention should be given to property value retention factors such as property management quality, community amenities, and transportation accessibility. Diversifying asset allocation beyond real estate is also recommended to mitigate risks [11].