美国大豆迎丰收季，农民却绝望喊话，中国一单未下，粮食恐烂地

Group 1: Impact of Trade War on U.S. Soybean Farmers - The U.S.-China trade war initiated in 2018 has severely impacted U.S. soybean farmers, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices and exports to China [1][5] - U.S. soybean exports to China fell to nearly 2.5 million tons in the 2023-2024 marketing year, a stark contrast to the 28% average export share to China before the trade war [1][8] - The financial pressure on U.S. farmers is evident, with production costs at $11.3 per bushel compared to a market price of $10.15, resulting in a net loss of nearly $100 per acre [2][3] Group 2: China's Strategic Response - China has built a robust global supply chain for soybeans, investing $12 billion in Brazilian infrastructure to reduce logistics time and ensure supply security [2] - In 2024, Brazil's soybean exports to China reached 74.65 million tons, accounting for 71.1% of China's total imports, while U.S. exports plummeted to 18% [2] - China's domestic soybean production has increased significantly, with a production target of over 23 million tons by 2025, reducing reliance on imports from 85% to below 75% [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures prices have dropped 40% from their peak three years ago, reflecting market concerns over supply chain disruptions [2][5] - U.S. farmers face structural challenges in transitioning to other crops due to high mechanization costs and the need to establish new sales channels, making it difficult to adapt to market changes [4] - The overall decline in U.S. agricultural exports has broader economic implications, affecting not only farmers but also energy exporters [3][5]