大宗商品资金流入激增，通胀“交易员”拉响全球通胀警报

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that while mainstream markets celebrate the end of inflation, commodity traders are signaling a different narrative through rising commodity prices, indicating potential inflationary pressures in the near future [1][2][3] - Commodity markets are seen as a leading indicator of inflation, with rising raw material prices typically preceding broader price increases, particularly in manufacturing and industrial sectors [2][3] - Historical data shows that metal prices lead global Consumer Price Index (CPI) by approximately 6-9 months, and the current rise in metal prices serves as a warning sign for upcoming inflation [2][3] Group 2 - Multiple inflation leading indicators are showing strong signals of accelerating price pressures, with a composite indicator based on manufacturing, monetary, and commodity data remaining above 2% and rising [3] - The inflow of funds into commodities is broad-based, with significant increases in commodity ETFs, despite a slower-than-expected inflow into gold ETFs, reflecting complacency in other market segments regarding inflation [3][4] - The current confidence in stock and bond markets is excessive, with inflows into major stock and bond ETFs at or near high levels, not reflecting expectations of a return to high inflation similar to the 1970s [4][5]