一次“尴尬”的“风险管理式降息”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is characterized as a "risk management-style cut," which appears somewhat "awkward" due to the contrast between economic forecasts and the rate cut path [1][2]. Economic Forecasts and Rate Path - The FOMC raised GDP growth expectations for 2025-2027, with 2025 and 2026 projected at 1.6% and 1.8% respectively, while lowering unemployment rate forecasts for 2026-2027 to 4.4% and 4.3% [2]. - Despite a more optimistic economic outlook, the rate path indicated a reduction of 25 basis points compared to June predictions, with a median forecast suggesting three rate cuts this year to 3.6% [2]. Employment Market Concerns - The decision for a more accommodative policy is primarily driven by significant deterioration in the employment market, with average job growth over the last three months at only 29,000, down from 99,000 [3]. - The FOMC shows major internal disagreements regarding the policy path, with six members favoring only one rate cut this year, while two support two cuts [3]. Powell's Hawkish Stance - Despite the dovish signals from the dot plot, Powell adopted a hawkish tone, downplaying the significance of the dot plot and emphasizing that it reflects individual forecasts rather than a predetermined policy path [4]. Inflation Concerns - Powell noted an increase in commodity price inflation, likely reflecting tariff impacts, and emphasized the FOMC's responsibility to prevent temporary price increases from evolving into persistent inflation issues [5]. Barclays' Expectations - Barclays maintains its baseline expectation that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December, primarily due to ongoing weak job growth and rising unemployment [6]. - For 2026, Barclays anticipates a pause in rate cuts until signs of easing monthly inflation data are observed, with further cuts expected in March and June [6].