中美利差进一步收窄，货币政策坚持“以我为主”

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, which is seen as a "risk management" move rather than the start of a sustained easing cycle [1] - The decision to cut rates comes amid pressure from the White House and reflects a balance between inflation and employment risks, with Powell indicating a preventive action due to a "strange balance" in the U.S. labor market [1][2] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of slowing, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics revising down the number of jobs added over the past year by 911,000, and August's non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000 [1][2] Group 2 - The weakening of the U.S. labor market may be obscured by factors such as reduced labor supply due to immigration policies, leading to a decline in labor force participation, which could accelerate the drop in labor demand [2] - Despite the Fed's rate cut, inflation risks remain, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.7% over the past 12 months, and core PCE increasing by 2.9%, influenced by rising goods prices and fluctuating service prices [2] - The Fed's contradictory stance of predicting economic growth and rising inflation while cutting rates has led to market confusion, prompting international capital to seek "safe havens," with China being a primary destination [3] Group 3 - The International Financial Institute reported that foreign investors allocated nearly $45 billion to emerging market stocks and bonds in August, the highest in nearly a year, with about $39 billion net inflow to China [3] - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. post-rate cut may lead to increased capital inflows into China, boosting the renminbi and attracting more foreign investment [3] - China's monetary policy needs to be cautious in response to the narrowing interest rate differential, as further rate cuts could pressure bank margins and potentially lead to increased risk appetite among banks [3]