真让曹德旺说中了？超200万套“断供房”出现，楼市格局日渐清晰

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant downturn in China's real estate market, with a notable increase in properties entering the market due to mortgage defaults, reflecting a broader shift in consumer attitudes towards homeownership and investment [1][2][4]. Market Overview - Over 200 million properties have entered the market due to mortgage defaults, a 57% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [1]. - In Q1 2025, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing fell by 16.8% and 19.3% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The housing price index has seen a continuous decline for seven consecutive quarters, with significant drops in third and fourth-tier cities [1]. Regional Analysis - The highest rates of mortgage defaults are found in third and fourth-tier cities, with a default rate of 6.8%, which is 3.7 times higher than that of many first-tier cities [2]. - Properties in economically lagging areas and those with severe population outflow are particularly affected [2]. Property Type Insights - Small investment properties and mixed-use residential properties are the most affected by mortgage defaults, with a default rate of 8.3% for units under 80 square meters and 12.7% for mixed-use properties [2][3]. Consumer Behavior Shift - A significant shift in consumer sentiment is noted, with 67% of potential buyers prioritizing self-occupancy over investment, compared to only 15% who view real estate primarily as an investment [4]. - This change in perspective is reshaping the real estate market dynamics [4]. Developer Strategies - Since 2024, over 500 small and medium-sized real estate companies have declared bankruptcy or undergone restructuring, indicating a shift in operational strategies [4]. - Developers are increasingly focusing on urban renewal, senior housing, and rental markets, with new construction areas declining by 28.5% while renovation projects increased by 36.7% [4][6]. Future Market Predictions - Predictions indicate that while premium properties in core urban areas may stabilize, prices in third and fourth-tier cities could decline by an additional 10% to 20% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, core urban areas in major cities saw only a 2.3% price drop, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced an average decline of 11.7% [6]. Investment Strategies - For property owners, 46% plan to sell non-core properties to retain or acquire premium assets [8]. - Strategies for those facing mortgage difficulties include negotiating with banks, downsizing, or renting out parts of their homes [8]. Long-term Market Outlook - The real estate market is transitioning from a high-growth phase to one focused on quality development, emphasizing living experience and service quality over mere asset appreciation [12]. - A return to the fundamental purpose of housing as a place to live rather than a speculative investment is encouraged [12].