注意！这一板块集体下跌，市场风向变了？

Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector experienced a collective decline in prices, primarily influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Southeast Asia has entered its production peak season, leading to increased supply expectations for the fourth quarter [2]. - Despite the rainy season affecting tapping operations, production is steadily recovering in major domestic and international regions [1][2]. - Domestic natural rubber social inventory was reported at 1.235 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons or 1.8% from the previous period [2]. - Demand remains subdued despite entering the traditional consumption peak season, with downstream enterprises purchasing based on need [2][3]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The prices of various rubber futures contracts have shown significant declines, with the Shanghai rubber futures contract down 2.08% to 15,570 yuan/ton [1]. - Analysts indicate that the market is currently under dual pressure from high production levels and insufficient inventory reduction [3]. - The overall sentiment in the rubber market is bearish, with expectations of continued price adjustments in the short term [3]. Future Outlook - In the medium to long term, after the production peak season, rubber prices may gradually increase [3]. - The market is advised to monitor the recovery pace of overseas demand and the progress of relevant pilot projects between Thailand and China [3]. - Analysts predict that natural rubber prices will likely remain weak until October, with attention needed on cost support and policy signals [3].