“买资产，空货币”：投资者狂热追捧美股美债，同时疯狂对冲美元风险

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in global investor behavior towards purchasing U.S. assets while simultaneously hedging against the risk of a declining dollar, indicating a significant change in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Global investors are increasingly buying U.S. stocks and bonds while using derivatives to hedge against further depreciation of the dollar, with Deutsche Bank noting that the inflow into dollar-hedged ETFs has surpassed non-hedged ETFs for the first time in a decade [1][2]. - The anticipated new wave of dollar hedging could reach $1 trillion, restoring the hedging ratio of U.S. stock and bond investments to levels seen over the past decade [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The simultaneous rise in U.S. stock markets and the dollar's decline can be attributed to hedging operations that involve shorting major reserve currencies, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve reinforcing this trend [2][3]. - The dollar's role as a traditional safe-haven asset has been challenged, particularly following the market turmoil caused by Trump's tariff policies, leading to a shift in investor preference towards currencies like the Swiss franc, euro, and yen [3][4]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Major financial institutions, including State Street Bank and Deutsche Bank, believe that hedging operations will exert downward pressure on the dollar's performance, especially in light of the European Central Bank maintaining interest rates and potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3][4]. - Foreign investors currently hold approximately $20 trillion in U.S. stocks and $14 trillion in U.S. bonds, indicating a strong preference for U.S. assets despite the hedging activities [4][5]. Group 4: Hedging Strategies - The hedging ratio for U.S. assets held by foreign investors has decreased from 70% in mid-2023 to about 56%, suggesting a potential increase in hedging activities as market conditions evolve [5]. - Some fund managers, however, are not significantly increasing their hedging positions, anticipating that the probability of a substantial dollar decline remains low under a gradual rate-cutting scenario by the Federal Reserve [5][6].