天风固收谭逸鸣：2025年9月美联储议息会议点评—“风险管理降息”背后的谨慎

Core Viewpoint - The September FOMC meeting highlighted the risks of employment slowdown and raised the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2025, indicating a cautious but dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3]. Economic Predictions - The FOMC's statement emphasized the risks of employment decline, removing the phrase "labor market remains robust" and adding concerns about "slowing job growth" and "increased risks to employment" [2]. - Economic forecasts were improved, with GDP projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 raised, while the unemployment rate for 2026 and 2027 was slightly lowered. The core PCE forecast for 2026 was also increased [2]. Interest Rate Projections - The dot plot indicated an increase in the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 from 2 to 3, with further divergence in future expectations among FOMC members [2]. - The FOMC members anticipate 2 more cuts this year, 1 cut in 2026, and 2 cuts in 2027, reflecting increasing internal disagreement [2]. Powell's Statements - Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating no need for a significant reduction at this time and emphasizing that future decisions will depend on data [3]. - Powell noted that while the unemployment rate remains low, it has begun to rise, attributing the slowdown in job growth to factors such as reduced immigration and declining labor force participation, as well as potential impacts from AI [3]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and stock markets showed mixed results, with gold prices declining. The market reacted to Powell's cautious tone regarding future rate cuts and the balance between employment and inflation targets [4]. - CME data indicated increased market confidence in two more rate cuts this year, although expectations for cuts in 2026 were pushed back [4]. Future Rate Cut Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for future rate cuts were outlined: 1. Soft Landing Scenario: The U.S. economy achieves a soft landing without major recession or stagflation, with two more cuts this year and three in 2025, influenced by political pressures [5][6]. 2. Recession Scenario: A significant economic downturn occurs, leading to a sharp rise in unemployment or a stock market crash, prompting the Fed to implement substantial cuts [5]. 3. High Inflation Scenario: A historic high inflation or stagflation situation forces the Fed to prioritize inflation control, maintaining high rates for an extended period [6]. - The soft landing scenario is considered the base case with the highest probability, while the recession and high inflation scenarios are viewed as less likely at this time [6].