【华西宏观】降息25bp，Fed意外团结

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25%, with expectations of an additional 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year [1] - The Fed's statement indicated a shift in focus from inflation to employment, noting a slowdown in job growth and an increase in unemployment, while also acknowledging that inflation remains high [2] - The Fed raised its growth and inflation forecasts, predicting growth rates of 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and adjusting the inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.6% [3] Group 2 - Market reactions included a temporary sell-off followed by a V-shaped recovery, with the S&P 500 initially dropping 0.5% before recovering most of its losses [4] - The independence of the Federal Reserve may be further compromised, as the White House seeks to exert more control over Fed appointments, potentially leading to higher inflation risks and a decline in the dollar's credibility [5][6]