出口量同比大幅增长 尿素基本面维持宽松格局

Core Viewpoint - Urea futures prices have shown a downward trend in early September, with a weak spot market and a bearish sentiment prevailing due to a lack of significant bullish drivers. It is expected that futures prices will maintain a weak oscillation trend in the short term [1]. Supply Summary - Despite some maintenance leading to a temporary drop in daily production to 190,000 tons, overall domestic urea supply remains relatively high. The production capacity utilization rate is at 79.34%, up 1.24 percentage points month-on-month. With fewer planned maintenance shutdowns, both production capacity utilization and daily output are expected to increase further [2]. - New production capacity is set to be released in Q4 2023, with daily production potentially exceeding 210,000 tons by 2026, which will exacerbate domestic supply pressure. Current inventories at urea enterprises are at a five-year high, totaling 1.1327 million tons, a 50% year-on-year increase [2]. - Production profits for urea have significantly declined year-on-year, with new gas flow bed production profits around 300 CNY/ton, traditional fixed bed production profits at about 50 CNY/ton, and natural gas process production profits at approximately 150 CNY/ton [2]. Demand Summary - Urea apparent demand from January to July 2023 was 41 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons or 8% year-on-year. However, agricultural demand is currently in a seasonal lull, and compound fertilizer companies are facing high finished product inventories and low operating rates, primarily purchasing urea as needed [3]. - Industrial demand, particularly from the real estate sector, remains weak, with a notable decline in plywood demand, leading to low operating rates in plywood factories [3]. - Although daily production of urea slightly decreased in early September, it is expected to rebound to over 190,000 tons by mid to late September due to the resumption of previously shut-down facilities and new capacity coming online. However, agricultural demand is unlikely to see significant improvement, and industrial demand is recovering slowly, providing insufficient support for prices [3].