3 6 Ke·2025-09-19 00:27Group 1: Core Insights - The flagship smartphones of 2025 will not feature 2nm chips, with major companies like Apple and Qualcomm opting for 3nm technology instead [1][6] - MediaTek has announced the completion of the design for its 2nm chip, the Dimensity 9600, which is expected to enter mass production by the end of next year [1][3] - By the end of 2026, several major companies, including Apple, Qualcomm, and Samsung, are expected to adopt 2nm technology [1][3] Group 2: Demand and Market Dynamics - TSMC's President, C.C. Wei, indicated that the demand for 2nm chips is unexpectedly high, surpassing that of 3nm chips [2][5] - Major clients such as Apple, AMD, and NVIDIA have already reserved TSMC's 2nm capacity, with Apple being the largest customer contributing 25.18% of TSMC's revenue in 2024 [3][5] - The performance improvements associated with the transition from 3nm to 2nm are driving significant interest from fabless companies [5][22] Group 3: Production Challenges - TSMC's production schedule for 2nm chips has faced delays, impacting the ability of smartphone manufacturers to incorporate these chips into their 2025 models [6][7] - The yield rates for 2nm chips are expected to start at around 70% and gradually improve, which may influence the timing of mass production for sensitive clients [10][11] - The complexity of transitioning to new technology nodes has led to longer timelines for product development, with the average time between nodes extending [19][21] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the semiconductor foundry market is intensifying, with TSMC and Samsung both advancing their 2nm production plans [12][16] - TSMC is expected to have a monthly production capacity of 60,000 wafers by next year, while Samsung's capacity is reported to be significantly lower at 7,000 wafers [16][18] - The race for advanced manufacturing equipment, particularly high-NA EUV lithography machines, is critical for maintaining competitive advantage in the 2nm space [18][22] Group 5: Future Outlook - The transition from 2nm to 1nm technology is projected to take at least five years, with multiple iterations planned for the 2nm node [20][21] - Despite challenges, the semiconductor industry continues to innovate, with advancements in materials and packaging technologies expected to drive future transistor density improvements [22]