货币政策预期博弈游戏或刚开始

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year, driven by weak economic data and easing inflation pressures [1][2] Economic Conditions - The Fed's decision reflects a recognition of the deteriorating labor market, with employment growth slowing and unemployment rates rising, which has become a significant factor in the rate cut [3] - Despite the rate cut, the Fed's actions are seen as lagging behind the European Central Bank, and inflation remains a core constraint on further rate reductions, with upward adjustments in inflation expectations for the next two years [3][4] Real Estate Market - The U.S. real estate market is showing signs of cooling, with weak demand and low existing home sales, which directly impacts monetary policy decisions [4] Political Influences - Political uncertainties may influence the pace of rate cuts, but the Fed's independence is expected to maintain a gradual adjustment policy, despite external pressures from political figures [5][6] - The internal decision-making dynamics within the Fed reveal complexities, with notable divisions among members regarding the extent and timing of future rate cuts [5][6]