张尧浠：降息落地后获利回吐、金价短期震荡偏弱调整

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing short-term weak adjustments following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with profit-taking and bearish sentiment dominating the market [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On September 18, gold opened at $3659.80 per ounce, reached a high of $3672.90, and then dropped to a low of $3627.82, closing at $3644.22, marking a daily decline of $15.58 or 0.43% [1][3]. - The volatility for the day was $45.08, indicating significant price fluctuations [1]. Federal Reserve Impact - The Fed's interest rate cut led to profit-taking, and Powell's comments on monetary policy were less dovish than market expectations, reducing bullish momentum [3][5]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. saw a significant drop, the largest in nearly four years, which negatively impacted gold prices [3]. Short-term Outlook - Gold is expected to continue its downward trend, potentially testing support levels around $3600 or $3540 due to reduced bullish momentum and the strengthening U.S. dollar [3][5]. - The market is currently operating below the 5-10 day short-term moving averages, indicating a bearish sentiment [3][9]. Long-term Perspective - Despite short-term adjustments, the structural bull market for gold remains intact, supported by the Fed's projected rate cuts and ongoing economic concerns [5][7]. - Historical trends suggest that during rate-cutting cycles, gold prices typically maintain an upward trajectory, with potential to reach above $4000 in the future [5]. Technical Analysis - The weekly chart shows gold prices have repeatedly tested the mid-line support since last year, indicating a potential for upward movement despite current bearish pressures [7]. - The daily chart indicates a strengthening bearish sentiment, with a focus on resistance levels around $3645 or $3660 and support levels at $3620 or $3600 [9][10].