通胀“降温”难掩内核火热 日本央行加息时机成焦点

Core Insights - Japan's consumer inflation rate has unexpectedly slowed down due to government utility subsidy policies, but it remains significantly above the central bank's target ahead of an upcoming policy decision [1][3] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding fresh food, rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, down from 3.1% in July, marking the lowest level since November of the previous year [1][3] - The overall CPI also decreased from 3.1% to 2.7% year-on-year during the same period [1] Inflation Dynamics - The core-core CPI, which excludes energy prices, increased by 3.3% year-on-year, slightly lower than July's level, aligning with analyst expectations [3] - Despite the anticipated unchanged policy from the Bank of Japan, the CPI data is not expected to influence the monetary policy decision [3] - The energy prices saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, the largest drop since January 2024, while government subsidies for gas and electricity lowered the overall CPI by 0.26 percentage points [3][4] Food Prices and Their Impact - Food prices have also contributed to the slowdown in inflation, with processed food prices rising by 8% year-on-year, down from 8.3% in July, and rice prices significantly dropping from 90.7% to 69.7% [4] - Gasoline prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year in August, reversing a 1.3% decline in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] - The ongoing high food inflation is likely to become a focal point in discussions regarding the Bank of Japan's policy [4]