2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-09-19 01:05Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18 marks the beginning of a new preventive rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Outlook - Most brokerages anticipate an additional 50 basis points of cuts within the year, but the long-term reduction may not meet prior market expectations [1][2][4]. - The Fed's internal decision-making shows significant divergence, leading to uncertainty in future rate paths [1][4][9]. Economic Projections - The prevailing view is a soft landing for the U.S. economy, although some brokerages warn that excessive monetary easing could lead to stagflation risks [1][4][9]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates a lower rate of future cuts than previously expected, with projections of 75 basis points this year and 25 basis points in the following two years [3][10]. Market Reactions - Short-term risk assets are expected to experience increased volatility, while mid-term outlooks remain positive for U.S. equities [3][6]. - The market had already priced in the rate cut, leading to initial gains in bonds and equities followed by corrections [6][10]. Sector Impacts - Sectors such as real estate and manufacturing are anticipated to benefit first from the rate cuts, with a favorable sentiment in A-shares and increased sensitivity in Hong Kong stocks due to improved overseas liquidity [7][8][12]. - The Fed's decision is expected to create more room for China's monetary policy adjustments, potentially leading to further easing domestically [2][12]. Divergence in Analyst Opinions - Analysts express mixed views on the Fed's approach, with some highlighting a hawkish tone in the risk management narrative, suggesting that continuous rate cuts may not be guaranteed [4][11]. - The Fed's focus on employment risks over inflation risks indicates a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [9][12].