“十五五”带来哪些潜在A股上行机会？两大核心方向引关注

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will bring two main upward opportunities for the A-share market: the cyclical recovery driven by anti-involution measures and structural growth opportunities from service consumption upgrades [1] Group 1: Anti-Involution Measures - Anti-involution measures are expected to be a major focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan," aiming to reduce production capacity and promote price recovery, which will help more industries achieve cyclical improvement [1][3] - This theme is anticipated to create an investment opportunity lasting 18-24 months, restoring prices and investment returns to normal levels, thereby significantly increasing household wealth through stock appreciation [1][3] Group 2: Service Consumption Growth - The Chinese government aims to increase residents' income during the new five-year plan, which will benefit service consumption [1][4] - Currently, China's per capita income is projected to be $5,660 by the end of 2024, with service consumption accounting for approximately 46%, similar to the U.S. levels in 1973 [5] - There is significant potential for growth in service consumption, particularly in healthcare, financial services, and cultural entertainment sectors, where spending is notably lower than in the U.S. [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains a mid-term optimistic outlook for the A-share market, expecting a shift in household asset allocation towards the stock market to support the future P/E ratio increase of the CSI 300 index [7] - The expected growth rate of earnings per share for the CSI 300 index in the first half of 2025 is 5.9%, with a projected increase of 14.1% for the entire year, indicating considerable growth potential [7]