瑞银：美联储降息后12个月股市平均升17%，坚定“增持”黄金

Core Viewpoint - UBS global equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite highlights the rarity of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve without an economic recession, noting that historically, markets have averaged a 17% increase 12 months later, with the current environment resembling September 1998 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Historical data shows a 56% chance of economic recession occurring approximately 5 months after a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - Since 1981, every instance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 75 basis points has led to a recession, with the exception of June 2002, when the market rose 15% a year later [1] Group 2: Emerging Markets - There is a 75% likelihood that emerging markets will outperform the broader market in the 12 months following a Federal Reserve rate cut, prompting an upgrade in the rating for emerging markets, particularly favoring China and Brazil [1] Group 3: European Stocks - European stocks have a 56% chance of outperforming the broader market 6 months after a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] Group 4: Gold Prices - Gold prices tend to rise 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months after a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a weaker dollar further supporting this trend; a 10% depreciation of the dollar equates to a 9% increase in gold [1] - There is substantial reasoning to support a long-term bullish outlook on gold, leading to a "buy" recommendation for gold [1]