Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-09-19 02:25Group 1: Baidu Group and AI Chip Market - Baidu Group's AI chip subsidiary, Kunlun Chip, is expected to see significant revenue growth, with projections of reaching 5 billion yuan in 2025 and 10 billion yuan in 2026, with Baidu holding a 59% stake [1] - Kunlun Chip's third-generation P800 has an FP16 computing power of 345 TFLOPS, surpassing A800, and is expected to support large-scale deployments [1] - The demand for domestic AI chips is anticipated to increase, with external clients including China Mobile, Southern Power Grid, and BYD, alongside potential partnerships with other internet companies like Tencent [1] Group 2: Baidu AI Cloud Revenue Growth - Baidu AI Cloud reported a revenue of 6.5 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with full-year revenue expected to reach 27.4 billion yuan in 2025 and 35 billion yuan in 2026 [1] - The domestic cloud business is projected to accelerate growth from over 10% to over 20% year-on-year, driven by AI demand [1] - Major domestic cloud providers are expected to see a capital expenditure (Capex) growth of over 40% in 2024, with a further increase to over 50% in 2025 [1] Group 3: Apollo Go and Robotaxi Market - Apollo Go is projected to exceed 10 million orders in 2025, having provided over 2.2 million rides in Q2 2025, a 148% year-on-year increase [2] - The cumulative service count for Apollo Go has surpassed 14 million, with profitable models established in cities like Wuhan [2] - Despite the large market potential for Baidu's robotaxi services, commercial viability is still in the investment phase, leading to limited short-term profit contributions [2] Group 4: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market - The price of high-end SAF in China has risen to 2,480 USD/ton as of September 17, 2023, a 55% increase from 1,800 USD/ton at the beginning of the year [3] - The European SAF market is facing a supply-demand gap, with consumption expected to reach 1.9 million tons this year against a production capacity of only 1 million tons [2][3] - China's SAF production capacity is projected to exceed 1 million tons by the end of 2024, with current and planned HVO/SAF capacity exceeding 10 million tons per year [2]