低利率时代固收类产品面临的挑战——以海外货币市场基金为镜鉴

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by fixed-income products in China due to declining interest rates, emphasizing the need for domestic money market funds to learn from international experiences in managing their scale and attractiveness [1]. Group 1: Changes in Money Market Fund Scale in Major Overseas Markets - In the U.S., during periods when money market fund yields fell below 1%, there were significant outflows from these funds, particularly noted in 2003-2004, 2009-2017, and 2020-2021 [2][3][5]. - The Eurozone experienced a decline in money market fund scale during the positive interest rate period from 2009 to 2014, with a contraction of 43%, but saw a rebound during the negative interest rate period from 2014 to 2022, with a 24% increase from historical lows [6][8]. - Japan's money market funds (MMF) faced extinction due to negative interest rates, while money reserve funds (MRF) thrived due to special regulatory arrangements that exempted them from negative rates [9][10]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Money Market Fund Scale Changes - The elasticity of nominal interest rates to policy rate changes leads to a "funds migration" effect, where money market fund yields are more sensitive to central bank rate adjustments compared to bank deposit rates [11][13]. - Different central bank policies regarding negative interest rates have resulted in divergent outcomes for MMFs in Europe and Japan, with Japan's MMFs ceasing operations while European MMFs expanded [19][20]. - Inflation impacts actual interest rates, influencing market preferences for low-risk assets; lower inflation typically leads to higher demand for money market funds and similar products [21]. Group 3: Implications for China's Money Market Funds - China's money market rates have historically shown a higher beta value compared to deposit rates, but this trend has reversed since 2023, indicating a potential shift in fund flows [22]. - The future of money market funds in China will depend on the central bank's ability to maintain attractive yields relative to deposit rates, especially as rates approach or fall below 1% [24]. - Anticipated adjustments in monetary policy could lead to a correction in the low beta environment of money market rates, potentially impacting fund flows and necessitating proactive strategies from fund managers [23][24].