“快降息”与“慢降息”

Core Viewpoint - The significance of the recent Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting lies in showcasing the current "dovish" perspective on interest rate expectations, particularly with the introduction of new member Milan, which may highlight the internal divisions between "dovish" and mainstream views within the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Perspectives - The main difference between the "dovish" and mainstream views within the Fed is the pace of interest rate cuts, with the "dovish" perspective advocating for "early and fast" cuts, while the mainstream view supports a more gradual approach [2]. - The dot plot from the recent meeting indicates that the most "dovish" view suggests only 1-2 additional 25 basis point cuts compared to the mainstream view, reflecting a minor divergence in long-term rate expectations [2]. Group 2: Employment Market Risks - Both the "dovish" and mainstream perspectives acknowledge the risk of a faster cooling in the U.S. job market, necessitating a relatively larger rate cut to mitigate this risk, although they differ on the timing and magnitude of the cuts [2]. - The primary risk to the U.S. job market is identified as stemming from the real estate sector, where employment in construction has surpassed pre-subprime crisis levels and has shown significant growth post-pandemic, potentially outpacing the expansion of construction activity [2].