Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges facing the oil market due to economic weakness in the U.S., highlighting a threefold dilemma in oil demand and the need for a new matrix of technology, rules, and ecology to address the crisis [1][2]. Economic Weakness - The U.S. economy is showing signs of significant slowdown, with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points to stimulate the economy amid weak employment indicators [1][2]. - August's non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, indicating a decline in consumer employment confidence to its lowest level since 2013 [2]. Oil Price Dynamics - International oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $63.57 per barrel, down 0.75%, and Brent crude at $67.44 per barrel, also down 0.75% [1]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to a combination of oversupply and weak fuel demand, exacerbated by a significant increase in distillate oil inventories [1]. Structural Changes in Energy - The article emphasizes that the current fluctuations in oil prices are symptomatic of a broader transformation in the fossil energy system, necessitating a shift from traditional energy pricing mechanisms to a new soft power matrix that includes technology standards and governance rules [1][3]. - The share of renewable energy in global power generation has reached 42%, with the cost of solar power dropping to one-third of coal power, indicating a systemic restructuring of traditional energy values [2]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with U.S. attempts to leverage energy pricing against Russia being undermined by fundamental supply-demand imbalances [1][2]. - Trump's comments on oil prices being a tool for geopolitical leverage highlight the risks of conflating energy resources with political strategies, which can disrupt market mechanisms [2]. Market Insights - The article suggests that a multi-dimensional assessment system incorporating carbon pricing, energy security, and geopolitical risks is essential for understanding oil price fluctuations, as traditional financial indicators are insufficient [3]. - Oil companies are encouraged to transition from resource extraction to energy services, emphasizing collaboration between distillate oil and clean energy [3][4]. Technological Innovations - The breakthrough for value innovation lies in technological coupling, such as hydrogen steelmaking, which requires advancements in high-pressure storage and transportation technologies [4]. - Companies can adopt models like Shell's "energy as a service" to integrate distributed energy sources and create closed-loop solutions [4].
邓正红能源软实力：政策调节效能衰减 需求端疲软预期对油价构成压力
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-19 04:05