美联储降息周期重启，投资者应持有多少黄金？

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are stabilizing above $3,600 per ounce, but new upward momentum is lacking despite the Federal Reserve initiating a new round of easing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact on Gold - Analysts attribute profit-taking in the gold market to investors reassessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, with a cautious approach to rate cuts indicated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell [1] - Powell's description of the Fed's decision as "risk management" suggests a gradual approach rather than a significant policy shift, which supports the dollar and puts pressure on gold [1] Group 2: Analyst Predictions and Recommendations - Société Générale analysts have increased gold holdings in their multi-asset strategy, projecting gold prices to hover around $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [2] - Chris Mancini from Gabelli Funds recommends a 5% to 10% allocation to gold in investment portfolios, highlighting its attractiveness due to investor indifference [2][3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Mancini notes that gold remains an attractive investment as ordinary investors largely overlook it, with significant interest expected to return as investors seek to protect purchasing power [3] - David Miller from Catalyst Fund suggests a 15% allocation to gold, citing erosion of trust in the dollar and strong central bank demand as supporting factors for the market [4] Group 4: Economic Context and Future Outlook - Miller emphasizes that the transition of trust from fiat currencies to hard assets like gold is driven by persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, predicting continued price increases for gold [5] - The significant U.S. government debt and deficit are expected to further undermine the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, reinforcing gold's appeal [5] - Jerry Prior from KraneShares indicates a current allocation of 8% to 9% in gold, which has risen to about 12% due to price increases, suggesting that a minimum of 3% allocation is necessary for liquidity [6]