2025年油海新貌：沙特阿拉伯能源转型与中沙能源合作新图景报告

Core Insights - Saudi Arabia, as the largest economy in the Middle East, is heavily reliant on oil, with oil activities contributing 27.9% to GDP in 2024, while non-oil activities account for 51.4%. This dependency necessitates economic restructuring as part of the "Vision 2030" initiative aimed at energy transition [1][7]. Group 1: Drivers of Energy Transition - The energy transition in Saudi Arabia is driven by four main factors: sensitivity to oil price fluctuations, the need for economic diversification to alleviate fiscal pressure, global low-carbon energy demand, and the necessity to maintain global energy leadership amidst regional competition [2][7]. - Key initiatives include stabilizing oil production, expanding the refining industry, significantly increasing natural gas production to 13 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, and scaling up renewable energy development with a target of 58.7 GW installed capacity by 2030 [2][3]. Group 2: Sino-Saudi Energy Cooperation - China is the largest destination for Saudi oil exports, with 14.7% of China's crude oil imports coming from Saudi Arabia in 2024. Cooperation extends to refining technology, port infrastructure, and capital collaboration [3][8]. - In the natural gas sector, Chinese companies are involved in the expansion of Saudi gas pipelines and field development, contributing to the entire industry chain [3][8]. - In clean energy, Chinese firms have established solar projects totaling 12.8 GW, representing 76% of Saudi Arabia's total solar capacity, and are actively engaged in hydrogen technology and energy storage projects [3][8]. Group 3: Key Achievements in Energy Transition - The localization level of the oil and gas industry in Saudi Arabia has increased from 37% in 2016 to 65.5% in 2023, reflecting significant progress in domestic value retention [2][46]. - The share of oil activities in GDP has decreased from 36.9% in 2010 to 27.9% in 2024, indicating a successful shift towards a more diversified economy [2][50]. - Non-oil government revenue has grown from 185.75 billion SAR in 2016 to 502.47 billion SAR in 2024, although it still falls short of the 1 trillion SAR target set for 2030 [2][60].