日本央行意外启动ETF抛售：步子很大，影响有限？

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates but unexpectedly announced the initiation of ETF sales, marking a significant step towards gradually exiting large-scale stimulus measures [1][2] - The Bank plans to sell ETFs at an annual rate of approximately 3.3 trillion yen and real estate REITs at about 5 billion yen per year, with the total ETF holdings valued at around 37 trillion yen [1][3] - Despite the large scale of the planned sales, it would take approximately 112 years to completely liquidate the ETF holdings at the current pace, indicating limited immediate market impact [1][3] Group 2 - The recent meeting signaled a clear hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan, with two dissenting votes advocating for an interest rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75%, reflecting growing internal pressure for policy normalization [2][4] - Analysts believe that while the policy shift is significant, the actual market impact is expected to be limited, with some suggesting that the clear path for ETF handling represents an important turning point [5][6] - The impact on different asset classes is anticipated to be varied, with potential structural resistance for major indices like TOPIX and Nikkei, while banks may benefit from a steeper yield curve and improved net interest margins if economic momentum remains stable [5]