Deckers(US:DECK) 智通财经网·2025-09-19 07:04Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor's brands Uggs and Hoka are experiencing a loss of sales momentum, which is expected to pressure the company's profit margins. Bernstein has rated Deckers as "underperform" with a target price of $100 [1] Group 1: Hoka Brand Analysis - Hoka has reached saturation in the U.S. running shoe market and is exiting a prolonged popularity cycle. Future growth rates are expected to slow to high single digits, primarily driven by international markets [1] - Hoka's cushioning technology has been imitated by competitors, and retailers are showing fatigue towards this trend. Nike's strong return in the running shoe sector poses a threat due to its more extensive product line, while On Running continues to expand its market share [2] Group 2: Uggs Brand Analysis - Uggs has seen significant growth in the global casual shoe market, but this category is gradually shrinking as consumers shift towards athletic shoes. The growth rate for Uggs is projected to be around 4%, a decline from the double-digit growth rates seen in previous years [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - Deckers' stock has declined by 43% year-to-date, closing at $115.43, down 2.74% as of the last trading day [3] - Despite both brands currently being profitable with gross margins close to 60%, the anticipated slowdown in growth and shifts in revenue structure towards wholesale and lower-priced categories are expected to gradually decrease profit margins. A forecasted decline of 190 basis points in gross margin is expected from fiscal year 2026 to 2030 [1]