We got a lot of reports. We heard from a lot of the discount retailers. You have a new buy on a stock that's having its best month since November.It's up 12% month to date and it is >> Deckers. I've never owned it before actually, Scott. But why now. >> I've uh Well, why now.Is because they have very strong brands. I'm a big believer in Hoka myself personally, but the numbers speak for themselves. It's growing Hoka about 20% and they're guiding double digit growth for the rest of the year for Hoka.UGG actua ...

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation's international business is a key growth driver, with HOKA and UGG showing strong performance abroad, particularly in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 where international revenues increased by 49.7% year over year to $463.3 million, significantly outperforming U.S. sales [1][10] International Business Performance - HOKA's international growth is robust, especially in the EMEA region, with record European reorders and strong consumer acquisition. Key products like Bondi, Clifton, and Arahi are leading sales, with Bondi and Clifton being top U.S. running franchises and doubling volumes in China for spring/summer 2025 [2] - UGG has also seen strong international growth, particularly in Europe and China. The brand's 365 strategy has expanded its appeal beyond cold-weather items, with new styles like the PeakMod clog gaining popularity, supported by effective marketing campaigns [3] Infrastructure and Strategic Investments - To meet rising demand, Deckers has invested in infrastructure, including changing its EMEA logistics provider and opening new stores in cities like Berlin, Milan, and various locations in China. These initiatives aim to enhance retail presence and build long-term brand equity [4] Future Outlook - Management anticipates that international markets will continue to outpace U.S. growth, with HOKA positioned as the fastest-growing brand and UGG expanding its seasonal and demographic reach. The goal is to increase international sales to 50% of total revenues, creating a more balanced and resilient business model [5] Competitive Landscape - In comparison, Steven Madden, Ltd. reported an 8% year-over-year increase in international revenues for the second quarter of 2025, while Wolverine World Wide, Inc. saw a 15.7% increase to $250 million, both outpacing U.S. sales [6][7][8] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Deckers shares have declined by 46.3% year to date, contrasting with the industry's decline of 9.6%. The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.80X, below the industry average of 18.22X [9][12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers' fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a slight decline of 0.6%, while fiscal 2027 indicates an 8.3% increase, with recent upward revisions in earnings estimates for both fiscal years [13]

Core Insights - The athletic footwear market is experiencing intensified competition, with NIKE Inc. and Deckers Outdoor Corporation as key players attracting investor interest [2] - The question arises regarding which stock presents greater upside potential in the near future [2] NIKE Overview - NIKE maintains its status as a global brand leader, with strong cultural and performance influence through its brands like NIKE, Jordan, and Converse [3] - In fiscal 2025, NIKE regained momentum through significant sports events, enhancing its emotional connection with consumers [3] - Performance categories showed strong results, with running sales growing in the high-single digits and women's basketball sales increasing over 50% year-over-year [4] - Marketplace strategies, including collaborations with DICK'S Sporting Goods and JD Sports, have improved sell-through rates and in-store experiences [5] - However, NIKE faced financial challenges, with Q4 revenues declining 12% to $11.1 billion and gross margins contracting 440 basis points to 40.3% due to discounting and supply chain issues [6] - Greater China remains a challenge, with revenues down 20% and EBIT declining 45%, indicating a slower recovery compared to other regions [7] Deckers Overview - Deckers is experiencing strong growth, particularly in its HOKA and UGG brands, with HOKA sales rising 19.8% to $653.1 million and UGG sales climbing 18.9% to $265.1 million [8] - International markets are a significant growth driver, with companywide international revenues increasing 49.7% year-over-year [9] - Deckers' innovation and brand storytelling are central to its strategy, with ongoing product development and new launches [11] - The company's omni-channel and wholesale strategies are yielding scalable growth, with wholesale net sales rising 26.7% in the first quarter [12] - Despite challenges such as anticipated tariff costs and profitability pressures, Deckers is well-positioned for sustainable growth [13] Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE suggests declines in sales and EPS for fiscal 2026, with a 10.6% downward revision in EPS estimates over the past 60 days [14] - In contrast, Deckers' estimates imply a 9% growth in sales for fiscal 2026, with a slight decline in EPS, but a 4% increase in EPS estimates over the past 60 days [17] - Stock performance over the past three months shows DECK shares rising 3.6%, while NKE shares gained 26.9%, reflecting NIKE's stronger brand momentum [19] - Valuation metrics indicate NIKE's forward P/E at 40.28, significantly higher than Deckers' 16.13, suggesting NIKE is pricier relative to historical levels [21] Investment Outlook - Deckers is positioned as a stronger investment candidate due to robust growth in HOKA and UGG, international expansion, and a healthy product pipeline [24] - NIKE, while investing in innovation and digital transformation, faces near-term challenges from revenue declines and margin pressures, making Deckers a more favorable option to hold [25]

Group 1 - Amrita leads a boutique family office fund in Vancouver, focusing on sustainable, growth-driven investments that maximize shareholder equity [1] - The fund aims to meet growth-oriented goals while democratizing financial literacy and simplifying complex macroeconomic concepts [1] - Amrita has a background in high-growth supply-chain start-ups and has experience working with venture capital firms, enhancing user acquisition during the pandemic [1] Group 2 - Amrita co-founded an award-winning newsletter, The Pragmatic Optimist, which emphasizes portfolio strategy, valuation, and macroeconomics [1] - The newsletter has been recognized as the Top Newsletter in Finance on popular platforms, indicating its influence and reach [1] - Amrita plans to extend her ideas and insights to Seeking Alpha, further broadening her audience [1]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) reported a strong start to fiscal 2026 with a 17% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by record sales from HOKA and UGG [1][10] - However, profitability faced challenges as gross margin declined by 110 basis points to 55.8% due to increased wholesale growth, promotions, and freight costs [2][10] - Management anticipates that the operating margin for fiscal 2026 will be below the previous year's record of 23.6% due to rising tariffs and elevated costs [3][10] Revenue Performance - Fiscal first-quarter revenues increased by 17%, with HOKA achieving $653.1 million (up 19.8%) and UGG reaching $265.1 million (up 18.9%) [1][10] - The strong performance of core brands in both domestic and international markets highlights their continued strength [1] Profitability Analysis - Gross margin decreased to 55.8%, impacted by wholesale growth outpacing direct-to-consumer sales, increased promotions, and rising freight costs [2][10] - Operating margin contracted despite improved SG&A leverage, which increased by 230 basis points due to disciplined expense management and one-time currency gains [2] Future Outlook - For the fiscal second quarter, gross margin is projected to be between 53.5% and 54%, lower than the previous year [4] - Management indicated that tariff increases on products sourced from Vietnam could add approximately $185 million in costs this year, which will only be partially offset by pricing actions and operational adjustments [4] Strategic Initiatives - Deckers is implementing proactive measures such as price increases, tighter expense controls, and continued investment in brand strength to navigate short-term margin pressures [5] - The company’s strong brand equity and international growth are expected to provide a foundation for long-term resilience [5] Competitive Landscape - In comparison, Steven Madden reported a significant decline in adjusted operating income, while Urban Outfitters saw a substantial increase in operating income and margin [6][7][8] Valuation Metrics - Deckers shares have declined by 49.3% year-to-date, contrasting with the industry’s decline of 13% [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.88X, below the industry average of 17.54X, and holds a Value Score of A [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DECK's fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a slight year-over-year decline of 0.6%, while fiscal 2027 estimates indicate an 8.3% increase [12]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is currently trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.67, which is above the Zacks Retail-Apparel and Shoes industry average of 1.64 [1][4] - The company's stock has experienced a significant decline of 22.3% over the past three months, underperforming the industry drop of 2.1% [4][5] - DECK's gross margin fell by 110 basis points year over year to 55.8% in Q1 of fiscal 2026, with expectations of further contraction [14] Valuation and Performance - DECK's P/S ratio is higher than peers such as Boot Barn Holdings (2.22), Under Armour (0.43), and Crocs (0.99) [4] - The stock closed at $100.47, which is 55.1% below its 52-week high of $223.98 [10] - The company has trailed the Retail-Wholesale sector's rally of 3.5% and the S&P 500's growth of 9.3% during the same period [5] Operational Challenges - DECK faces margin pressures due to a shift towards lower-margin wholesale sales, elevated tariff costs, and softer U.S. direct-to-consumer trends for HOKA [5][13] - The anticipated $185 million in unmitigated tariff costs is a primary concern, particularly with potential increases in Vietnam import duties [13] - Elevated inventory levels reached $849 million, up 13% year over year, raising concerns over potential markdowns [16] Growth Potential - Despite challenges, DECK's brands HOKA and UGG exceeded growth targets in Q1, with HOKA growing 19.8% to $653.1 million and UGG growing 18.9% to $265.1 million [19] - International revenues surged by 49.7% year over year in Q1, with strong gains in Europe, APAC, and China [20] - The company is focusing on innovation and brand storytelling, with new product launches and optimized distribution strategies [21] Strategic Initiatives - DECK's wholesale net sales rose 26.7% to $652.4 million in Q1, driven by HOKA's 30% increase in global wholesale revenues [22] - The company expects a 14% increase in wholesale revenues in fiscal 2026 [23] - Management is implementing strategies to address operational headwinds, including loyalty program improvements and store expansion [15]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation's first-quarter fiscal 2026 performance was driven by strong demand for its flagship brands, HOKA and UGG, with HOKA's revenues increasing by 19.8% year over year to $653.1 million and UGG's revenues growing by 18.9% to $265.1 million [1][9] Brand Performance - HOKA maintained strong momentum with successful product launches, including the Arahi 8, and is expected to continue its growth trajectory with upcoming models such as Mafate 5 and Mach 3 [2] - UGG expanded its product offerings beyond cold-weather items, introducing versatile styles like the PeakMod clog and Lowmel sneaker, aligning with casual fashion trends [3] International Growth - Deckers reported a 49.7% year-over-year increase in international revenues in the first quarter, with both HOKA and UGG contributing significantly [4] Future Projections - For the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Deckers anticipates net sales between $1.38 billion and $1.42 billion, with HOKA expected to grow by 10% and UGG projected to increase in the mid-single digits [4][9] Competitive Landscape - Wolverine World Wide and Urban Outfitters are key competitors in the footwear market, with Wolverine's brands showing strong growth and Urban Outfitters' portfolio delivering positive performance [5][6][7] Valuation Metrics - Deckers shares have declined by 49.9% year to date, compared to a 12.6% decline in the industry [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.77X, below the industry average of 17.64X, indicating a favorable valuation [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers' fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a year-over-year decline of 1.1%, while fiscal 2027 estimates indicate an 8.3% increase [12]

Group 1 - HOKA ONE ONE launched the HOKA MAFATE HOUSE experience space in Beijing, indicating a focus on developing a new popular product beyond the Bondi series [1] - Deckers Group reported HOKA's net sales of $653.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, marking a record performance [1] - The outdoor sports market has seen a surge in interest in trail running, with various brands, including both specialized and non-specialized brands, entering the market [1] Group 2 - The Chinese trail running shoe market is currently dominated by overseas brands, with a typical price point around 1,000 yuan, leading to intense competition among major sports brands and emerging players [1] - Sales of trail running shoes on major e-commerce platforms in 2024 are expected to exceed 600 million yuan, representing a nearly 80% year-on-year increase [1] - The entry of brands like Nike and Arc'teryx into the trail running shoe market is intensifying competition, which was previously led by specialized brands [1]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) reported a strong performance in its wholesale business for Q1 fiscal 2026, with wholesale net sales increasing 26.7% year over year to $652.4 million, primarily driven by the HOKA and UGG brands [1][10]. Wholesale Performance - HOKA's wholesale revenues rose 30%, supported by robust sell-in, expanded distribution, and strong reorders, particularly in EMEA and APAC regions [2][10]. - UGG's wholesale revenues also increased by 30% year over year, with notable gains in both domestic and international markets, especially in EMEA and China, due to early fulfillment of fall orders and inventory replenishment [3][10]. - Throughout Q1, sell-through outpaced sell-in across wholesale accounts, indicating effective inventory management and healthy consumer demand [4]. Market Dynamics - The wholesale channel is expected to grow faster than the direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel, driven by evolving consumer preferences for in-person retail experiences and strong partner engagement [5]. - Deckers' ability to align wholesale execution with market demand positions the business for continued momentum through the fiscal year [5]. Competitive Landscape - Key competitors in the wholesale channel include Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) and Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) [6]. - Steven Madden's wholesale channel reported a decline of 6.4% year over year, impacted by order cancellations and shipment delays, with a gross margin decrease to 31% [7]. - Urban Outfitters' wholesale channel achieved a 24% revenue increase in Q1 fiscal 2026, driven by strong full-price sales and improved profitability [8]. Valuation and Estimates - Deckers trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.05X, below the industry average of 17.43X, with a Value Score of A [12]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DECK's fiscal 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year decline of 1.1%, while fiscal 2027 indicates an uptick of 8.3% [13].

Despite a nearly 50% year-to-date stock decline due to broader retail slowdowns and tariff concerns, Deckers' underlying fundamentals look pretty good. A strong balance sheet allows for aggressive share repurchases and operational flexibility. Valuation metrics are attractive, well below competitor Nike and the broad market; a trailing P/E of 17.2 and a forward P/E of 17.6. Year-end seasonal demand for UGGs may also prove to be a tailwind. Even with high inventory and tariff impacts, Deckers' enterprise val ...